Federal Election of Australia: The polling’s negative feedback

Short Story: While all the polls predicted the easy wining of Labor party in the federal election of Australia, the center-right coalition of Liberal and National parties was elected. “I have always believed in miracles and tonight we have been delivered another one.” The leader of the Liberal party, Scott Morrison, said a few days ago right after the winning of the election.

Discussion: There exist a few important points in this short story that I am going to highlight:

  1. A world of selfish countries: We are facing a frightening stream in society beliefs trusting conservative policies all around the world. The struggle between Labor and Liberal parties in the recent election in Australia was concentrated on whether the country should restrict the coal mining activities due to climate changes or not? People vote not for restriction. While the societies are going to be more selfish than before, some efforts are being made to raise awareness of the societies about the impact of their decisions on others. More precisely I want to appreciate Simon Anholt, the founder of Global Votefor his excellent idea.
  2. The polling’s negative feedback: The victory of Scott Morrison reminds us the unbelievable victory of Donald Trump in 2016’s USA election. In that election also, polls showed that Trump is going to give the election up to its opponent, Hilary Clinton. Many journalists then said that some people did not go to vote for Clinton just because they were sure that she is going to be elected. On the other hand, those who wanted Trump to be the president went to the voting centers despite being among those who usually do not participate in the elections; this time they did just because the results of the polls frightened them. This is a newly rising effect of polling which I call it the polling’s negative feedback. I believe same effect happened in Federal election of Australia and caused the Liberals win with a very slight superiority. This effect is not really a new effect but it has been more powerful these days as the social media penetration rate is reaching up to 100% preparing necessary conditions for such feedbacks to be strong enough to make real changes.

Note: Similar effect happens when people decide whether they want to like a post on Instagram or not. If they see that the post has received enough attention already, it is very likely that they ignore liking it even if they really like it.