Federal Election of Australia: The polling’s negative feedback

Short Story: While all the polls predicted the easy wining of Labor party in the federal election of Australia, the center-right coalition of Liberal and National parties was elected. “I have always believed in miracles and tonight we have been delivered another one.” The leader of the Liberal party, Scott Morrison, said a few days ago right after the winning of the election.

Discussion: There exist a few important points in this short story that I am going to highlight:

  1. A world of selfish countries: We are facing a frightening stream in society beliefs trusting conservative policies all around the world. The struggle between Labor and Liberal parties in the recent election in Australia was concentrated on whether the country should restrict the coal mining activities due to climate changes or not? People vote not for restriction. While the societies are going to be more selfish than before, some efforts are being made to raise awareness of the societies about the impact of their decisions on others. More precisely I want to appreciate Simon Anholt, the founder of Global Votefor his excellent idea.
  2. The polling’s negative feedback: The victory of Scott Morrison reminds us the unbelievable victory of Donald Trump in 2016’s USA election. In that election also, polls showed that Trump is going to give the election up to its opponent, Hilary Clinton. Many journalists then said that some people did not go to vote for Clinton just because they were sure that she is going to be elected. On the other hand, those who wanted Trump to be the president went to the voting centers despite being among those who usually do not participate in the elections; this time they did just because the results of the polls frightened them. This is a newly rising effect of polling which I call it the polling’s negative feedback. I believe same effect happened in Federal election of Australia and caused the Liberals win with a very slight superiority. This effect is not really a new effect but it has been more powerful these days as the social media penetration rate is reaching up to 100% preparing necessary conditions for such feedbacks to be strong enough to make real changes.

Note: Similar effect happens when people decide whether they want to like a post on Instagram or not. If they see that the post has received enough attention already, it is very likely that they ignore liking it even if they really like it.

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What is science? Who is God?: The two necessary conditions

Statement: I believe the chance of being alive _or in better wording being conscious_ by accident is so low that we have no other option to believe in a creator.

Discussion: Obviously, this is not a scientific statement. Because it is not testable. Wait a minute; or it is?

Actually, it is testable. All you need is a computer simulation _sometimes you don’t even need that. It is enough to compute the probability of you being born if all we know is that your grandmothers married your grandfathers; leave it alone the probability of your father and mother bring you into being if all we know is that Adam has met Eve or that the Big Bang happened 13.8 billion years ago. Do you want me to compute these probabilities for you? Short answer: absolute ZERO.  
Any scientist _no matter which field of science_ with a background in theory of probability can confirm that there is a God. However, you probably need to bring the topic up after midnight when he is alone, reclining on a sofa.

It doesn’t matter that you are a biologist or an astronomer; just think about a bacteria or the earth. Then compute the probability of its emergence with all its necessary conditions after the Singularity point. You believe in God even if you are not aware.

Of course, this statement does not have the other necessary condition of a scientific proposition: making falsifiable predictions. But do we really need this condition to hold? I say no. If you have the following two conditions, then no we don’t need to check for falsifiable predictions: being a scientist familiar with probabilities and being brave.

Note: Let me clarify that probably we do not need God to explain the physical phenomena of nature. There is a chance that science will cover this regime better and better as we go through the time. But we need God to explain the whole “being”. God is not something to use to cover the gap; probably, there exist no gap in the universe. But God is what explains the “fact” of existence of the universe.

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نامه ای به توماس شلبی درونم

میدانم که هنوز هم همانجا هستی. اگرچه بریده بریده ولی میدانم که هنوز هم نفس میکشی.

هر مردی یک توماس شلبی درون دارد. همانطوری که هر زنی یک ایلونا. میدانم حالت بد است. این را به طور خاص وقتی متوجه شدم که نمیتوانستی پیکی بلایندرز را ببینی.

دوست داشتی خانواده بسازی. قرار بود باغ بزرگی بخری و یک ویلای زیبا و چند اسب اصیل. که سارا و پارسا آنجا تمرین اسب سواری کنند. قرار بود طره سالی یک بار با دوستان نزدیکتان تماس بگیرد و برای چند روز همه را دعوت کند ویلا. و قرارهای دیگری که تنها تو میدانی و خودم. و تو ای سرخورده ترین توماس شلبی ای که میتوانم متصور شوم. حالا تنها مانده ای. بدون خانواده و بدون طره.

با تمام این ها زنده ماندنت به خودی خود ارزشمند است. من بودنت را ارج می نهم و به جای تمام کسانی که باید از بودن کنار تو احساس آرامش و امنیت می کردند، از بودن با تو احساس آرامش و امنیت می کنم. به تصمیم گیری های هوشمندانه ات ایمان دارم و مطمئنم که می توانستی خیلی ها را خوشحال کنی. هنوز هم می توانی انگار. این بار اما بگذار من تصمیم بگیرم. بگذار کمی بهش فکر کنم.

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